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Updated: 10/23/2017 16:35:13


Notes from ExtendWeather:

  1. The ExtendWeather forecast is based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast.
  2. Uncertainty still remains on the ultimate hurricane track and the track depicted by GFS is close to the consensus of an ensemble of track models for tropical depressions and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. For more details on all the tracking models we encourage you to visit https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/
  3. The GFS forecast movie depicts a three hourly forecast based on hourly model outputs. Its value is not only in tracking but also in its depiction of the speed of a tropical depression or hurricane's forward movement. It is noted that the forward progress of tropical depressions and hurricanes do fluctuate considerably and a slowing in forward speed can lead to more intense impacts by increasing local rainfall amounts and damaging winds.
  4. As expressed elsewhere risks posed by tropical depressions and hurricanes can be serious and cover a considerable geographic area. Please heed local warnings and evacuation notices.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Maria continues to have convective bands over the eastern and
northeastern portions of its circulation, with drier air inhibiting
convection over much of its western semicircle.  Dvorak intensity
estimates are below hurricane strength, but this has been the case
for the last couple of days, where aircraft observations showed the
system stronger than indicated by the satellite-based estimates.
Since the cloud pattern has not deteriorated significantly from
earlier today, Maria is kept as a hurricane for now.  Only gradual
weakening is expected since SSTs do not cool much until after 48
hours, and baroclinic processes may help maintain intensity for
another day or so thereafter.  Later in the forecast period, the
post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by a larger
extratropical low over the far northeastern north Atlantic.  The 72-
and 96-hour forecast positions, intensity, and wind radii were
coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Maria is gradually turning to the right as it nears the
mid-latitude westerlies, and the motion estimate is now 040/6 kt.
Over the next few days, the cyclone should accelerate eastward to
east-northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough moving through
the northeastern United Sates and off the northeast United States
coast.  There continues to be significant along-track, i.e. speed,
differences between the ECMWF and GFS models later in the period,
and the official forecast is nearly an average of these 2 model
tracks. This is also close to the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 36.8N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 36.9N  70.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 36.9N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 37.4N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 39.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 44.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0000Z 51.0N  18.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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