In January and February ENSO-neutral conditions continued. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño within the late Southern Hemisphere summer and early autumn, with ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.
Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month other than Western Europe and parts of the Mediterranean Basin with above average wind conditions. Winds will be greater than average in the north eastern Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean.
Much of the world should expect normal solar radiation levels for the month except for Central Africa with moderate increases and the Western Pacific region with increases.
The Pacific Northwest of the US and Central Asia and the Pacific Coast of South America signal warmer than normal temperatures while the Northeast of the North American Continent is signaled as having extreme cold. The rest of the world shows no clear signal for extreme warm or cold conditions except for coastal China and along the Pacific coast of South America.
Potential for extreme precipitation is signaled for the northern Andes and while the southern Pacific Coast of South America could be substantially drier. Large parts of Central Mexico and the US Southwest and Southern USA could have extreme precipitation although most areas are just slightly wetter. Central China could have extreme precipitation events and also the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea while Java and Sumatra and the Southern Malay Peninsula could be unusually dry along with Central Africa.
Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month other than Western Europe and parts of the Mediterranean Basin with above average wind conditions. Winds will be greater than average in the north eastern Pacific Ocean and slightly above average for the South Western Pacific ocean and the South Pacific south of 30 degrees.
Much of the world should expect normal solar radiation levels for the month except for the southern USA and Mexico will slightly lower than normal levels along with much of South America and SE Asia and Northeast India, Southern Africa and North Central Africa. The Arctic is expected to have above normal levels.
Much of the US and Central America and almost all of South America and much of Asia and Southern and Central Africa are expected to be cooler. Coastal China and the west coastal fringe of South America and the Southeastern part of the North Pacific is expected to be much warmer. Northeast Asia and the Northeast of North America continue to be colder.
Potential for extreme precipitation is signaled for the Andes and Pacific Coast of South America and for large parts of Central Mexico and the US Southwest and west Central China. Extreme dry conditions are very limited expect in Indonesia and Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines and Papua New Guinea and Central Africa.
Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month other than Western Europe and parts of the Mediterranean Basin with above average wind conditions along with parts of Central Asia. Below average winds will cover most of Australia and New Zealand and southern South America.
Much of the world should expect normal solar radiation levels for the month except for the southern USA and Mexico and Gulf Coast States of the USA will slightly lower than normal levels along with much of South America, Australia, New Zealand and South and North Central Africa. Only Alaska and part of North Central USA and Southern plan of Canada will have elevated levels.
Much of the US and Central America and almost all of South America and much of Asia and a large part of North Asia and the South Pacific and Pacific coast of Australia are expected to be cooler. Coastal China and the west coastal fringe of South America and the Southeastern part of the North Pacific is expected to be much warmer.
Potential for extreme precipitation is signaled for the Andes of South America and for parts of Central Mexico and the US Southwest and west Central China. Extreme dry conditions are very limited expect in Indonesia and Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Southern China and the Philippines and Papua New Guinea and Central Africa.