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Sample Forecast for India

Summary for India

NOAA El Niño Advisory: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016.

During June, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies exceeded +1.0oC across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The largest SST anomaly increases occurred in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices remained more constant through the month. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies weakened due to the eastward shift of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which reduced above-average temperatures at depth in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. In many respects, the atmospheric anomalies remained firmly coupled to the oceanic warming. Significant westerly winds were apparent in the western equatorial Pacific and anomalous upper-level easterly winds continued. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, which are consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater). At this time, the forecaster consensus is in favour of a significant El Niño in excess of +1.5oC in the Niño-3.4 region. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016.

ENSO events typically translate to drier than normal conditions in India.

India

Temperature

September

Much of the northern two thirds of the country should be 0.6 and 1.5 degrees C above normal with only Tamil Nadu and near environs being slightly below normal for the month.

October

Much of the northern half of the country should be 0.6 and 1.5 degrees C above normal with only Jammu & Kashmir and Nagaland and environs experiencing slightly below normal temperatures.

November

Much of the northern half of the country should be 0.6 and 1.5 degrees C above normal. With just slightly warmer than normal conditions expected elsewhere.

Precipitation

September

The southern half of the country should be up to50 to 75 percent drier than normal while the northern half of the country should be between 10 and in the far northwest in Jammu & Kashmir into Himachal Pradesh up to 100 percent wetter than normal.

October

Much of the country should be between 25 and up to 75 percent drier than normal for the month however, for the northwestern part of the country the rainfall for this month is already extremely low. The eastern half of Uttar Pradesh, northern Bihar, Assam and Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram should have slightly to moderately above average rainfall as well as Jammu & Kashmir.

November

Much of the country should be between 25 and greater than 75 percent drier than normal for the month however, for the northwestern and central part of the country, the rainfall for this month is already low. The eastern half of Uttar Pradesh, northern Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram should have slightly to moderately above average rainfall as well as Jammu & Kashmir. In the south Tamil Nadu, Eastern Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh should be moderately wetter than normal.