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Sample Forecast for India

Summary for India

NOAA El Niño Advisory: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region. Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month, with the largest departures exceeding 6oC. The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

ENSO events typically translate to drier than normal conditions in India.

India

Temperature

October

Much of the northern half of the country should be 0.6 and 1.5 degrees C above normal with only Jammu & Kashmir and Nagaland and environs experiencing slightly below normal temperatures.

November

Much of the northern half of the central part of the country should be 0.6 and 1.5 degrees C above normal. With just slightly warmer than normal conditions expected elsewhere.

December

Much of the northern half of the central part of the country should be 0.6 and 1.0 degrees C above normal. With just slightly warmer than normal conditions are expected elsewhere.

Precipitation

October

Much of the central and western half of the country should be slightly to moderately drier than normal. Just the far northwest including Jammu & Kashmir and northeast from central Uttar Pradesh east through Bihar and the far northeast and far southwest including Tamil Nadu should be slightly wetter than normal.

November

Much of the country should be between 25 and greater than 75 percent drier than normal for the month however, for the northwestern and central part of the country, the rainfall for this month is already low. The eastern half of Uttar Pradesh, northern Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram should have slightly to moderately above average rainfall as well as Jammu & Kashmir and Gujarat. In the south Tamil Nadu, Eastern Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh should be slightly wetter than normal.

December

Much of the central and western half of the country should be slightly to moderately drier than normal. Just the far northwest including Jammu & Kashmir and northeast from central Uttar Pradesh east through northern Bihar and the far northeast and far southwest including Tamil Nadu and the far southeast of Karnataka should be slightly wetter than normal.