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Sample Forecast for India

Summary for India

Synopsis: El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

A strong El Niño continued during October as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Most Niño indices increased during the month, although the far eastern Niño-1+2 index decreased, accentuating the maximum in anomalous SST farther west. The subsurface temperature anomalies also increased in the central and eastern Pacific, in association with another downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. These conditions are associated with enhanced convection over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and with suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niño episode.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged, with the expectation that this El Niño could rank among the top three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region going back to 1950. El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

ENSO events typically translate to drier than normal conditions in India.

Temperature

December

Much of the northern half of the central part of the country should be 0.6 and 1.0 degrees C above normal. With just slightly warmer than normal conditions are expected elsewhere.

January

Much of the northern half of the central part of the country should be 0.6 and 1.0 degrees C above normal. With just slightly warmer than normal conditions are expected elsewhere.

Precipitation

December

Much of northern India from Rajasthan north and to the east in Bihar should be moderately wetter than normal although this is typically a drier month. The rest of the country should be slightly to moderately drier than normal except for Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry that should also be above normal.

January

Much of the central, south and western half of the country should be slightly to moderately drier than normal except for Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and southern Andhra Pradesh that should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal. Just the far northwest including Jammu & Kashmir, western Punjab and eastern Rajasthan and northeast from central Uttar Pradesh east through northern Bihar and the far northeast and much of Tamil Nadu should be moderately wetter than normal.