NOAA El Niño Advisory: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere summer 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early fall 2016.
During July, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were near +1.0oC in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and in excess of +2.0oC across the eastern Pacific. SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices decreased slightly during the month. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month, in association with the eastward movement of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. The atmosphere remained coupled to the oceanic warming, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies continuing from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific, along with anomalous upper-level easterly winds. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.
All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Southern Hemisphere autumn 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a strong event at its peak in late spring/early summer (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater. At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favours a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region potentially near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere summer 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early fall 2016.
Near normal over the entire region.
Near normal over the entire region
Slightly to moderately drier than normal.
Slightly drier to near normal across the region.
Slightly cooler (up to 0.5 degree C) over the entire region.
Near normal over the entire region.
Slightly drier than normal throughout the region.
Near normal throughout the region.
The entire region should be up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
Slightly drier than normal over most of the region except the southern half of the region that should be moderately drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier in the eastern and southern part of the region.
The entire region should be up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be moderately drier than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal to near normal in the east.
The entire region should be up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
Much of the region could be 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal.
Much of the region should be normal to slightly drier than normal but moderately drier than normal in the south.
Much of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
The entire region should be up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
Much of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal but slightly to moderately wetter than normal in the southern half third.
The entire region could be up to 0.5 to 1.0 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be slightly cooler than normal except the far south should be slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be near normal except the far south should be slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be moderately drier than normal.
Most of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
The area should be slightly cooler than normal.
The area should be near normal.
The area should be moderately drier than normal.
The area should be moderately drier than normal.
The northern half of region could be up to 1.0 degrees C cooler than normal while the southern half could be up to 1.0 C warmer than normal.
The northern half of region should be near normal while the southern half could be up to 1.0 C warmer than normal.
Nearly the entire region should moderately drier than normal.
Nearly the entire region could be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
Nearly the entire region could be up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal except the far north and alpine areas which could be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
Nearly the entire region should be near normal to slightly cooler than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
Much of the eastern half of the region should be slightly cooler than normal to near normal and slightly to moderately warmer than normal in the alpine areas.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal in the Alps.
The region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
The region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
Much of the western half of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal and the eastern half of the region near normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the easternmost portions.
Much of the region should be normal except for Fiordland that could be moderately cooler than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal except for Fiordland that could be slightly cooler than normal.
Much of the eastern half of the region should be near normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the south.