Synopsis: La Niña is favored to develop during August - October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
ENSO-neutral conditions were observed during the past month, as indicated by near-to-below average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. While the Niño-4 region was slightly above average, the other Niño indices were either slightly below average or near zero during June. Below-average subsurface temperatures continued and extended to the surface in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean also indicated ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional Southern Oscillation index was slightly positive while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was near zero. The upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was slightly suppressed over portions of the western tropical Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral conditions.
Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, continuing during fall and lasting into winter. Statistical models predict a later onset time (i.e., mid-fall) than dynamical models, and also predict a relatively weaker event. The forecaster consensus is somewhat of a compromise between the two model types, favoring La Niña onset during the August-October season, and predicting a weak event (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and -1.0°C), if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail and La Niña is favored to develop by August - October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal especially mainland SE Asia.
Much of insular SE Asia should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal. For mainland SE Asia the northwest half should be near normal to slightly to moderately drier than normal. Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and much of Viet Nam should be near normal to slightly to moderately drier than normal. Most of the Philippines should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.