Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favoured to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017.
La Niña conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific. The latest weekly Niño index values were -0.3°C in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions, and +1.5°C in the easternmost Niño-1+2 region. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during January and was slightly positive when averaged across the eastern Pacific, a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia. The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds were near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.
Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017). Because of typically high uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of the year for the upcoming spring and summer, and the lingering La Niña-like tropical convection patterns, the forecaster consensus favours ENSO-neutral during the spring with a ~60% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Niño toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance in September-November). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favoured to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017.
The western half of mainland Southeast Asia should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal including the Red River Valley of Viet Nam while the rest of the Mainland should be slightly to moderately cooler than normal. The Philippines should be cooler than normal while the rest of insular SE Asia should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
Most of mainland Southeast Asia should be slightly to moderately drier than normal in what is typically already a relatively dry month. Much of insular Southeast Asia from the Central Philippines south through Borneo and the Indonesian archipelago should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal. Only the north coast of West Papua and the northern half of the Philippines should be moderately drier than normal.